Tuesday, February 19, 2008

My Oh My!!

























It is a fantastic day in Mariner country.

After only one season of being able to watch Seattle games with the hometown feed (thank you MLB.tv), I already know why everybody loves Dave Niehaus. When I first heard him, I thought he was a little corny, but after watching a couple of games, I absolutely loved listening to him. When he gets excited, you can tell it is 100% pure and honest love of the game that comes with those old fashioned lines.

And now he's headed to Cooperstown. With the Mariners since their birth, he has been in the booth for 31 years and has done so with unheard of reliability - 4817 of 4899 games (thanks to this article for that tidbit). That includes two angioplasties by the way. Now he is the proud winner of the Ford C. Frick Award and headed to the hall.

My, oh my indeed.

(thanks to www.princeton-indiana.com for the sweet pic)

Saturday, February 16, 2008

My Personal Fantasy Player Values

Well, although about 100% of the people who read this are also in my fantasy league, I am posting the very list that I will be using in this year's fantasy drafts. Mainly because I want to hear some reactions. Now remember, these values are given based on not only the production that is expected, but they are determined by how much value they will be to your team based on what position they play. Don't for a second think that I believe that BJ Upton is a top 10 player in the game today.

The ELITES: If you don't have a top 3 pick, PRAY that one of these guys finds a way to drop to you.

Chase Utley 122.667

A-Rod 120

Jose Reyes 118.8

1st Round Material: These are the guys who you can definitely be excited about having on your team.

Hanley Ramirez 115.2

David Wright 114

Jimmy Rollins 114

Miguel Cabrera 114

BJ Upton 112

Alfonso Soriano 111.76

Matt Holiday 111.76

Studs: These are the rest of the top tier players that will round out the 2nd round. If you can get one in the third round, be ecstatic.

Carl Crawford 110.588

Vladimir Guerrero 109.411

Carlos Beltran 109.411

Brandon Phillips 109.33

Ryan Braun 109.2

Aramis Ramirez 109.2

Ichiro Suzuki 108.235

Derek Jeter 108

Albert Pujols 106.67

The Best of the Rest: Here is the last tier of players that can dominate.

Brian Roberts 106.67

Grady Sizemore 105.88

Troy Tulowitzki 105.6

Garrett Atkins 105.6

Manny Ramirez 104.7

Curtis Granderson 103.529

Lance Berkman 103.529

Johan Santana 103.385

Ryan Howard 102.4

David Ortiz 102.4

Prince Fielder 102.4

Alex Rios 102.35

Jake Peavy 102.308

Josh Beckett 102.308

Erik Bedard 102.308

Brandon Webb 102.308

CC Sabathia 102.308

Victor Martinez 102

JJ Putz 102

Jonathan Papelbon 102

Adrian Beltre 102

Robinson Cano 101.33

Felix Hernandez 101.23

Roy Halladay 101.23

Francisco Rodriguez 100.8

Cole Hamels 100.153

Dan Haren 100.153

Magglio Ordonez 100

The Rest: OK, so here is how I rank the rest, and at this point I will be strictly choosing the top available player from the list for the position I need. This is honestly where it gets up in the air. Those first 3 or 4 picks you took from the lists above will be your workhorses, but these are the guys who are going to win you championships

Howie Kendrick 100

Rickie Weeks 100

Joe Nathan 99.6

Carlos Zambrano 99.077

John Lackey 99.077

Ben Sheets 99.077

Gary Sheffield 98.823

Carlos Lee 98.823

Eric Byrnes 98.823

Placido Polanco 98.667

Russell Martin 98.4

Michael Young 98.4

Miguel Tejada 98.4

Carlos Guillen 98.4

Roy Oswalt 98

Dustin Pedroia 97.33

Dan Uggla 97.33

Joe Mauer 97.2

Billy Wagner 97.2

Bobby Jenks 97.2

Justin Verlander 96.923

Brad Penny 96.923

Bobby Abreu 96.47

Rafael Furcal 96

JJ Hardy 96

Takashi Saito 96

Adam Dunn 95.29

Mark Teixeira 94.933

Mariano Rivera 94.8

Brian McCain 94.8

Jorge Posada 94.8

Lance Berkman 93.866

Justin Morneau 93.866

Kenji Johjima 93.6

Ivan Rodriguez 93.6

Ian Kinsler 93.33

Jose Valverde 92.4

Edgar Renteria 92.4

Jhonny Peralta 92.4

Derek Lee 91.733

Travis Hafner 91.733

Javier Vazquez 91.538

Orlando Cabrera 91.2

Stephen Drew 91.2

Victor Martinez 90.667

Kelly Johnson 90.667

Orlando Hudson 90.667

Fausto Carmona 90.461

Trevor Hoffman 90

Chone Figgins 90

Jarrod Saltalamacchia 90

Francisco Liriano 89.308

Scott Kazmir 89.308

Tim Lincecum 89.308

Phil Hughes 89.308

John Smoltz 89.308

Pedro Martinez 89.308

Ryan Zimmerman 88.8

Chipper Jones 88.8

Alex Gordon 88.8

Francisco Cordero 88.8

Daisuke Matsuzaka 88.308

Mike Lowell 87.6

Carlos Guillen 87.466

Torii Hunter 87.059

Vernon Wells 87.059

Kaz Matsui 86.66

Paul Konerko 86.4

Huston Street 86.4

Hideki Matsui 85.88

Jason Bay 85.88

Khalil Green 85.2

Carlos Pena 84.266

Garrett Atkins 84.266

Jason Varitek 84

Ramon Hernandez 84

Jered Weaver 82.923

Jermaine Dye 82.353

Hunter Pence 82.353

Raul Ibanez 82.353

Nick Markakis 81.176

Chris Young 81.176

Andruw Jones 81.176

Brad Hawpe 81.176

Adrian Gonzalez 81.066

Tim Hudson 80.769

Todd Helton 80

Delmon Young 80

Johnny Damon 80

Pat Burrell 80

AJ Burnett 79.69

James Loney 78.933

Nick Swisher 78.933

Alex Gordon 78.933

Josh Fields 78.82

Shane Victorino 78.82

Nick Swisher 78.82

Jeff Francis 78.615

Jeff Francoeur 77.647

Aaron Rowand 77.647

Chien-Ming Wang 77.538

Aaron Harang 77.538

Ken Griffey Jr. 76.47

Jacoby Ellsbury 76.47

Jeremy Bonderman 76.461

Chris Young 75.384

Rich Harden 75.384

John Maine 75.384

Carlos Delgado 74.667

Matt Kemp 74.117

Kelvim Escobar 71.07

Brett Myers 71.07

James Shields 70

Juan Pierre 69.411

Rich Hill 68.923

Dontrelle Willis 68.923

Matt Cain 68.923

Clay Buchholz 67.846

Friday, February 15, 2008

Fantasy Baseball - Building a Championship Team

Sorry it's been a while, but it was a crazy week at school. Finally catching a breather.

First of all I want to say congratulations to Dan and Jason for winning our league’s championships in its first two years of existence. They had fantastic teams and fantastic seasons. I wanted to get that out of the way because, like any good friends, they will be the first to point out that I do not have the credentials to write an article about how to build a championship caliber team, since I have yet to win one.

But, I feel like I am a very solid fantasy baseball player, and I consistently build teams that take me deep into the playoffs. So here we go, here are my rules to live by for draft day. By the way, I’m sure most of these apply to Rotisserie style leagues also, but I always play head-to-head, and that is where these lessons have come from.

1. Know your league’s scoring system. While most leagues are generally consistent with their scoring, there are plenty of customizable leagues to play in. You are going to be mad as hell once you draft an all-star SP rotation only to realize that pitching categories count for only a third of the scoring system you are in. Take a look at which categories you are going to need to win, and draft accordingly.

2. Put some time into your draft day material. For those of you who don’t know, I am a numbers guy. And the numbers don’t lie. So I put together a “weighted” rankings list. There are many different ways of doing this, but here is my general formula. This may take a little time on your part, but it is not difficult at all to work out.

Now, you are probably used to just making a list for each position with each player listed down the line, and probably a comprehensive ranking list of every player in the league. That is definitely a good thing, but my weighted system will give you a much better draft day list and is very easy to follow.

Rating = (Player Grade) * (D) / (D – 0.5) where D = Position Deepness Rating

a) You are going to give each position a “deepness” rating. To determine this rating, first look at all available players at that position, and count how many “quality” players are available. By “quality”, I mean any player that you wouldn’t even think twice about taking. For each position, take that number and divide it by the number of slots available you have on your team. For example, say that I like 21 quality OF’s. I would then divide that by 3 because I start 3 OF’s to get a deepness rating of 7. Say I like 6 quality 1B. I would divide by 1 to get a deepness rating of 6. From here on out, I will refer to this rating as “D”.

b) Now comes the fun part. For each player, you are going to grade on a scale of 1 to 100, with 1 being horrible (e.g. Jeff Weaver) and A-Rod being a 100. This is where your personal preferences come in. You can take into account whatever you want when grading each player. Even if he’s a stud but you know you’d absolutely never want him on your team and wouldn’t mind taking someone else, feel free to give him a 0 so he falls off your radar. And be sure to take into account rule #1 I gave you – take into consideration your scoring categories. If the only real help a closer is going to be to is just in the Saves category, do NOT rate him nearly as high as position players.

c) Then for each player, you take their grade and multiply it by D for their respective position, then divide that answer by (D – 0.5). We do this last part just to even out the final ratings (no real scientific reason for the exact number, but that is the formula I use that has given me the most useful final Rating). This gives you their final Rating. And now, you can make your position by position list like you had before, but now you can use the same final Rating to make your comprehensive list of all players. Your final results may surprise you, but this will give you the best list that not only supports your league set-up type, but also your personal views on each player and their positions.

Like I said, very simple, but very effective.

Rating = (Player Grade) * (D) / (D – 0.5) where D = Position Deepness Rating

If you need a visual example, here are a few players at the top of most fantasy lists with example scores I gave them.

3B A-Rod 100

SS Jose Reyes 95

SP Johan Santana 90

1B Prince Fielder 90

2B Chase Utley 92

Say I like four quality 3B, three quality SS, twelve quality SP (remember – 2 slots on roster), five quality 1B, and two quality 2B.


Final Ratings

A-Rod = (100)*(4)/(3.5) = 114.2857

Reyes = (96)*(3)/(2.5) = 114

Santana = (90)*(6)/(5.5) = 98.1818

Prince = (90)*(5)/ (4.5) = 100

Chase = (92)*(2)/(1.5) = 122.6667

So if I had the number 1 pick, believe it or not this ranking system has me taking Chase Utley over A-Rod because of how scarce good fantasy second basemen there are. And you can see that even though Johan and Prince were given an equal original score, Prince gets the boost because his Deepness factor was a lower D.

3. Do not fill a bench spot with any pick before round 10. STARTERS FIRST!! This is so idiotic but people still will be filling backup roles before they even have a catcher and a second baseman.

4. Your bench should look like this. Offense – 1 or 2 bench players who can fill multiple positions. Pitching – this is where the majority of your bench should be. Load up your bench with starting pitchers (for most standard head to head leagues). If you have a lot of guys to start every single week, you’ll have a much better chance to take the categories like Wins, K’s, and IP.

I will keep you updated with any more as I think of them. And tomorrow I will be posting my brief Player Rating list that I will actually be using in my own drafts.

Peace I’m outta here!

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Random thoughts from around the league

Just some things on my mind.

I wonder if the Tampa Bay Rays realized that it wasn’t their team name that was the problem, it was the team itself. I actually thought the Devil Ray was tight. The stupid sunbeam is absolutely horrendous.

Curt Schilling’s shoulder could possibly keep him out for the entire season. First, how does one injure their shoulder that badly before spring training even starts? And second, if this was a nagging injury, why was it not addressed until now?

It’s about time the Mets started spending like a team from NYC should. They are going to be scary good now. But still, let’s not forget how hilarious their collapse was last year. Everyone laugh all together now. Laugh now while we can before they win 120 games.

I’m really excited to see Dan Haren leave Oakland. Last year was his breakout year, and he’s going to be great for a long time. Enjoy Arizona, where we will never see you again.

This whole Clemens/McNamee thing is absolutely out of control. I want to believe that Clemens is all roided up, but McNamee sounds like a complete nutjob. How does he expect anyone to believe that he has syringes that he’s kept refrigerated for 8 YEARS, not to mention bloody syringes that somehow avoided Senator Mitchell’s investigation.

I absolutely cannot wait for fantasy baseball.

Annnd that’s basically all I have on my mind right now. That and a quick update on the Bedard deal. He’s in Seattle right now for his physical, so this painstakingly long process may finally be at an end. Can we PLEASE just be finished with this. I’m so excited to have Felix and EriK pitching back to back.

Monday, February 4, 2008

EriK Bedard

How sweet is it that Mr. Bedard is among the 1% of all Erics out there who spell thier name with a K. It fits so perfectly. These are the little things that I love to look at. So from now on, I refuse to type or write his name any other way besides EriK Bedard.

It's not exactly official yet, but I am writing this now because I just got word that Adam Jones is in Baltimore right now for his physical, and that is all that remains.

This really is an awesome acquisition for us. I love Adam Jones as much as anybody, and I realize his amazing potential. He absolutely will be a star in this league. But let's take a look at our pitching rotation last year compared to this year.

2007
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Jeff Weaver (7-13, 6.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 146.2 IP, 4.92 K/9)
Horacio Ramirez (8-7, 7.16ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 98 IP, 3.67 K/9)

2008 Projected
Felix Hernandez
EriK Bedard (13-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 182 IP, 10.93 K/9)
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 202 IP, 3.97 K/9)

And as excited as I am about Bedard, please don't underestimate the importance of bringing in a guy like Silva. No, he's not a Santana or Liriano, he won't strike a ton of guys out. But he eats up innings like crazy. And as our 4th or 5th guy, if he can save our pen for the top of the rotation, that is going to help like you wouldn't believe. And getting him into Safeco is only going to improve his numbers. He lets guys put it in play, and with our defense, it is a beautiful fit.

As much as it pains me to see Adam go, it gives us a chance to focus on another young future star that we have in the system. If you don't know who I am talking about, we have the most talented and highest rated shortstop in all of the minor leagues in Carlos Triunfel. I have to admit I have yet to see him actually play, but from what I read he is going to be fun to watch. I cannot wait to see how he pans out, although I love Yuniesky a lot. Watching Yuni and Beltre hold down the left side is absolutely beautiful, although word has it that Triunfel's glove is even better. Triunfel is not a power guy, but I'm sure he can be a better hitter than Betancourt. Yuni has his moments and I love him, but I can't wait to see this kid in the bigs.

Annnnd one quick non-baseball note,

How hilarious was it watching the Patriots blow that perfect season. They went from "Best Team of All Time" to "Maybe one of the top 50 teams of all time because we just lost to Eli Manning. We suck." I wonder how Tom Brady feels. He just got pimp slapped by his nemesis Peyton Manning the year before, and then the very next year has Peyton's punk little brother pimp slap him even worse on the biggest stage of all. Absolutely hilarious.

(I'm not even a Giants fan, I just love seeing my annoying Boston friends cry)